Eurostat Projects EU Population to Shrink by 53M Before 2100
The bloc's statistical authority published long-range population projections on Thursday, drawing on current demographic trends to predict a loss of approximately 53 million residents — bringing the EU's total down to 398.8 million by 2100.
From a 2025 baseline of an estimated 451.8 million people, the EU is expected to reach a brief peak of 453.3 million in 2029, after which a sustained, decades-long population decline is set to take hold.
The projections carry sweeping implications for the region's age structure. The combined share of children, youth, and working-age adults is forecast to erode steadily over the 75-year horizon. Specifically, those aged 0–19 are expected to represent 17% of the population by 2100, down from 20% today, while the 20–64 age group — the core of the labor force — is projected to shrink from 58% to just 50%.
The demographic weight is shifting sharply toward older age brackets. The proportion of those between 65 and 79 is forecast to edge up from 16% to 17%, but the most striking shift concerns the oldest segment: Europeans aged 80 and above are projected to nearly triple their share of the population, surging from 6% to 16% by century's end.
The findings underscore mounting pressure on EU pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, and labor markets as the continent ages at an accelerating pace.
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